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Economy Watch: October Housing Numbers Exceed Expectations

Homebuilding rates in the U.S. increased in October, halting several months of decline and likely indicating that hurricane reconstruction has begun in earnest.

The U.S. Commerce Department announced that housing starts across the country jumped 13.7% month-over-month to 1.29 million units in October, topping initial economist estimates of 1.185 million units. It’s the highest level since October 2016, and reflects a gradual return to normalcy after supply line disruption caused by hurricanes Harvey and Irma, as well as rebuilding starting in affected areas.

Building of single-family homes, the largest share of the housing market, increased 5.3% in October. 

Housing starts in the South increased 17.2% to 621,000 units; single-family construction there increased 16.6%, its highest level since 2007. The South accounts for nearly half of all home construction in the U.S. and was significantly affected by Hurricane Harvey, which hit Texas in August, and Hurricane Irma, which made landfall in Florida in September. 

The Midwest and Northeast also saw increases in housing starts, at rates of 18.4% and 42.2% respectively. The rate fell 3.7% in the West.

October’s numbers end three consecutive months of housing start declines, caused by recent land and labor shortages, as well as price increases in lumber. Meanwhile, building permits, an indicator of future groundbreaking, increased 5.9% to 1.297 million units in October – the most robust rate since January.

While the Housing Market Index by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo found that builders are at their second-highest confidence level since July 2005, recent Chinese factory shutdowns in the wake of environmental inspections have caused price spikes of some raw materials, including silicon, PVC, stainless steel, copper, zinc and petroleum.